The potential third wave of COVID-19 in India is unlikely to be as devastating as the second wave, according to a study by scientists from the Indian Council Of Medical Research (ICMR) and the Imperial College London, UK. As per the study published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, a major third wave will occur in case of extreme scenarios, such as if already infected people lose immunity, or the new COVID variants are highly transmissible. The study also highlighted the role of vaccination in mitigating future waves, reported NDTV. 

Also read: 776 doctors died during second COVID wave in India, highest in Bihar: IMA

The first COVID wave in India started in late January that peaked in mid-September. It was followed by a severe second wave that started in mid-February 2021 and saw more than 100,000 cases and thousands of deaths reported each day. During the second wave, which peaked in May, shortages of medical oxygen, COVID-19 vaccines and life-saving drugs were reported across India. 

COVID-19 variants — B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.617.2 (Delta) are major factors behind the second wave, of which the latter is believed to have played a major role.

Also read: Explained: The difference between the Delta and Delta Plus variants of COVID-19

As per the IJMR study, the possible third wave is unlikely to be as severe as the second, given the extent of the virus spread that has already taken place in India.

It’ll take worst-case scenarios for a major third wave, the study said. Such scenarios include if at least 30% of the population who had been already infected entirely lose their immunity, or a new variant has a reproductive rate (R) over 4.5. It means that one infected person infects four to five persons. Also, these should take place immediately after the second wave ends, the study found out.

It also stated that vaccination can substantially mitigate the emergence of the third wave, adding that vaccines should be rolled out in such a way that 40% of the population gets the two doses over a period of three months following the end of the second wave.

The study also cautioned regarding physical distancing, masks and other precautions in shaping the virus’ transmission. 

“Lockdown-release mechanisms could be a plausible driver for a third wave in India, depending on how effectively lockdowns have controlled transmission during the second wave particularly when instated at an early stage of the second wave and prior to attainment of peak,” the study stated. 

Also read: 48 Delta Plus COVID cases reported in India, highest from Maharashtra

The second COVID wave is currently on the decline in India, while several countries, such as France, the UK and the USA, have already been hit by the third wave.