India has tackled the COVID-19 pandemic bravely, as the country is
running the world’s largest vaccination programme. The rates of active cases are falling in India, with surveys suggesting the presence of antibodies in nearly
300 million people, Reuters reported. Despite a recent spike of COVID-19 cases in
Maharashtra and Kerala, experts believe that the worst is over.

“There is a human barricade for the
virus,” Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of
Michigan, who with a team of researchers, has been modelling the trajectory of
the outbreak in India, told Reuters.

“By the end of March, we should see a very slow, steady decline (in
cases),” she added.

Experts are still under doubt as to why millions of Indians are asymptomatic. India’s strict and early lockdown implementation and an open-air lifestyle in rural India could have given Indians the immunity that kept the virus at bay. Epidemiologists suggest it would take years to find out the exact reason.

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Previously witnessing a rise of nearly 100,000 cases a day, India is now
seeing a rise of only 10,000 per day. Projections suggested that India’s total
number of infections would surpass those of the United States in late 2020, however, India proved them wrong with a tally of 11 million compared to 28 million of
the US.

India has reported world’s fourth highest number of deaths at

“India suffered a lot but it has reached the other shore now,” said Ramanan Laxminarayan, an
epidemiologist at the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, a
research firm based in Washington, DC and New Delhi. “I don’t see the
prospect of a second wave in India. If it does happen, it will likely be a
modest one.”

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A recent serosurvey conducted by the government indicated that 21.5% of
Indians were likely infected by COVID-19, and thus possessed immunity to fight
the disease. Antibody tests on more the 700,000 people showed that 55% Indians
were already infected.

Experts have stated that India must continue taking precautions and
practice COVID-19 containment measures to keep the numbers from rising again.
Resumption of local trains in Mumbai and reopening of schools in Kerala could be
the cause of the sudden surge.