Study estimates three-fold rise in COVID-like outbreaks in coming decades

#covid19 #disease #Pandemic

Researchers analysed new disease outbreaks over the past 400 years
Death toll in a future pandemic can be eight times higher in absence of interventions
The world must be prepared to deal with large scale epidemics capable of killing millions

Written By:Hamid

Updated: August 23 2021 07:01:31 PM ET

The world could see a pandemic similar to the scale of COVID-19 within the next six decades while a more severe one capable of wiping out human existence is statistically likely within the next 12,000 years, according to a study conducted by a team of scientists from the United States (US) and Italy. Based on the rate of outbreaks of novel pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the past 50 years, the study estimates that such probability is likely to witness a three-fold growth over the next few decades.

While the COVID-19 pandemic is claiming the lives of around 2.5 million people a year, the death toll in a future pandemic of the same scale could go up by eight times in the absence of interventions such as contact tracing and quarantines.

ALSO READ: Pentagon to make COVID vaccines mandatory following FDA nod of Pfizer’s shot

Researchers analysed new disease outbreaks over the past 400 years and found that epidemics were not as rare as first thought, The Telegraph UK reports. The scale and frequency of plague, smallpox, cholera, typhus and novel influenza viruses helped the team find patterns with the probability of a pandemic with similar impact to COVID-19 in any given year being about two per cent. This means someone born in the year 2000 had about 38% chance of experiencing a global health emergency. Deadly pandemics such as the Spanish Flu that killed more than 30 million people between 1918 and 1920 are only likely to occur once within the next 400 years.

ALSO READ: Natural vs COVID vaccine induced-immunity: All questions answered

The researchers termed population growth, changes in food systems, environmental degradation and frequent contact between humans and disease-carrying animals as contributing factors.

They called for preparedness to deal with future outbreaks of large scale epidemics capable of killing millions of people.

“The most important takeaway is that large pandemics like Covid-19 and the Spanish flu are relatively likely,” according to Dr William Pan, associate professor of global environmental health at Duke.