You probably think you were really unlucky to land the last pick, the 12th pick, in the NFL draft for your 12 team half point per reception (PPR) league. Think again. The 12th pick allows you to get a great wide receiver (WR) in round 1 and immediately come back and draft tight end (TE) Travis Kelce with your pick in round 2. In round 3, you still have pretty high quality options in TE Kyle Pitts or wide receiver (WR) DJ Moore.
Round 1 Pick 12: Ja’Marr Chase (Yahoo ADP 9.1), Najee Harris (Yahoo ADP 8.9), Joe Mixon (Yahoo ADP 10.7): get one of them if they fall to this spot.
Stephon Diggs (Yahoo ADP: 12.7): Stephon Diggs is the top receiving option in the explosive Buffalo Bills offense led by top QB Josh Allen. He is also one of the most talented WRs in the league. As a result he finished as the WR7 last year. Expect this year to be no different, with a top 5 overall WR finish well within the range of outcomes.
Also Read: NFL: Top late-round targets in fantasy football
Other targets: Travis Kelce (Yahoo ADP 16.7), DeAndre Swift (Yahoo ADP: 18.2)
Round 2 Pick 13: Stephon Diggs (Yahoo ADP 12.7), Joe Mixon (Yahoo ADP 10.7): Get them here if available
Travis Kelce (Yahoo ADP 16.7): Getting Travis Kelce here secures WR1 level production from the TE position. There are some concerns whether Kelce, at 32, is going to be durable or show any skill decline. An increased propensity for injuries or decline has not happened so far and we predict Kelce’s going to stave off father time for at least another year. An added bonus, Tyreek Hill has left Kelce’s team, the Kansas City Chiefs. This means Kelce could be in for a monster workload this year, great for his fantasy production.
Also Read: Minnesota Vikings see fired-up Za’Darius Smith for opener vs Green Bay Packers
DeAndre Swift (Yahoo ADP: 18.2): DeAndre Swift is one of the premier receiving RBs in the NFL. Receiving targets count for an extra half point in 0.5 PPR leagues, so backs with a receiving workload are valuable in this format. Before he injured his shoulder last year, Swift was the RB7 overall in the first 11 games of last season. Given health, we expect him to perform at the same level this year and finish in the RB5-10 overall range.
Alvin Kamara (Yahoo ADP: 22.2): Alvin Kamara combines a receiving and rushing workload that is exceeded by only Christian McCaffery in the NFL. As a result he puts up RB5 or better seasons every year. This season should be no different as long as he plays his full complement of games. Playing all of his games has been brought into some question because of Kamara’s involvement in a violent altercation during last year’s Pro Bowl weekend. The league is expected to suspend Kamara for several games as a result. But it looks like the axe will fall on Kamara during the 2023 season instead of this year. Considering risk vs reward, we’d still recommend drafting Kamara here.
Round 3 Pick 36: Keenan Allen (Yahoo ADP 30.2), Ezekiel Elliott (Yahoo ADP 29.9), Tee Higgins (Yahoo ADP 30.3), AJ Brown (Yahoo ADP 34): get one of them if available
Kyle Pitts (Yahoo ADP 39.4): Kyle Pitts made history last year by becoming the highest ever drafted TE. He had a decent rookie season in a league where TEs generally don’t make an impact in their first year, finishing at TE5 overall. One more year of acclimatising to the NFL and building chemistry with his QB Marcus Mariota should pay dividends this year. In an Atlanta offense that is lacking weapons, we expect him to have a breakout season and provide production equivalent to the WR2 range, which would give you a positional advantage from the usually underwhelming TE position.
DJ Moore (Yahoo ADP 41.2): DJ Moore is part of a pedestrian offense, the Carolina Panthers. But his talent has enabled him to continue putting up real world and fantasy production every year. He was finished in the high end WR2 range each of the past three years. This year is going to be no different.
Round 4 Pick 37:
Kyle Pitts (Yahoo ADP: 39.4), DJ Moore (Yahoo ADP: 41.2): If one of them are available, prioritise them
Breece Hall (Yahoo ADP: 41.7): The New York Jets have been investing in their offense over the last couple of years. They drafted their future QB in Zack Wilson last year. This year, they have invested in their offensive line and drafted their RB of the future in Breece Hall. Breece was drafted with a high second round pick, in accordance with his valuable three down skillset. Ultimately he should be the Jets’ workhorse back. But temper expectations in the beginning of the season. Michael Carter, last year’s lead back, will start the season in the lead role. When the season is done, we expect Breece to take over this backfield and finish somewhere in the low end RB2 range.
Other targets: Jaylen Waddle (Yahoo ADP 43.6), Terry McLaurin (Yahoo ADP: 44.1)
Round 5 Pick 60: Courtland Sutton (Yahoo ADP 53.3), JK Dobbins (Yahoo ADP 56.1), DK Metcalf (Yahoo ADP 55): If you find one of them here, prioritise them
AJ Dillon (Yahoo ADP 62.2): AJ Dillon finished as the overall RB22 last year, as the 1B in the Green Bay Packers’ 1-2 punch at RB, playing behind Aaron Jones. He will retain that role this year, giving him a low end RB2 floor. In addition, if Jones were to miss time due to injury in a normally injury ravaged position, Dillon would get catapulted into a top 5 RB workload.
Round 6 Pick 61: AJ Dillon (Yahoo ADP 62.2), if available here, pick him
Brandin Cooks (Yahoo ADP 74.2): Brandin Cooks is one of the rare WRs that has a skill set that is agostic of his QB and overall quality of offense. He produces 1000 yard receiving WR2 seasons automatically every year. That is the reason his team gave him a rich extension this past offseason. Draft him here with confidence.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Yahoo ADP 72.7): Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not been an outstanding football player so far in his career. But his role and the overall quality of the offense of his team, the Kansas City Chiefs, means that he has the volume and opportunity to produce an RB2 season regardless.
Other targets: Gabriel Davis (Yahoo ADP 73.7), Damien Harris (Yahoo ADP 66.8)
Round 7 Pick 84: Brandin Cooks (Yahoo ADP 74.2), Marquise Brown (Yahoo ADP 74.8), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Yahoo ADP 78.1): Get them if available here.
Michael Thomas (Yahoo ADP 83.6): Last time we saw a full season from Michael Thomas, he finished as the WR1 overall. That unfortunately was way back in 2019. An ankle injury and subsequent surgery has laid him low for the most part of the last two years. In the meanwhile, his hall of fame QB Drew Brees has retired and the overall offense has taken a step back. Given all of this, and Thomas’ now documented injury history, we don’t expect a WR1 season from him. But a WR3 finish is very likely given his talent and role.
Rashod Bateman (Yahoo ADP 85.5): The Baltimore Ravens offense is one of the best run offenses in the NFL. They have been looking to balance their offense more and as a result drafted their alpha WR of the future last year in Rashod Bateman. While his rookie season was injury marred, Bateman flashed enough talent that Baltimore let their veteran lead WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown walk away in free agency. Now Bateman has the opportunity to make full use of his talent. We’re expecting a breakout from Bateman as a result, and finish in the WR3 range, with upside.
Other targets:
Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9), Russell Wilson (Yahoo ADP 75)
Round 8 Pick 85: Michael Thomas (Yahoo ADP 83.6), Rashod Bateman (Yahoo ADP 85.5): If available, draft them here
Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9): Darnell Mooney enters his third NFL season this year. His sophomore season last year was his breakout year. In the last 9 weeks of the season, Mooney provided WR14 production after the injury to lead WR Allen Robinson. Robinson left Chicago this past offseason, giving the keys to the receiving part of the offense to Mooney, the new alpha. We’re expecting a WR3 season with upside this year.
Chris Godwin (Yahoo ADP 91.9): Chris Godwin is a beast who produces monstrous fantasy seasons every year. Last year, in the exceptional passing attack of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers led by GOAT QB Tom Brady, Godwin finished as a WR1. Unfortunately, he got injured at the tail end of that campaign in week 15, tearing both his ACL and MCL. Although eventually fully expected to recover from the injury, this is the type of injury that can linger up to a year. So we can’t expect anywhere close to a WR1 season from Godwin. But a WR3 season? Heck yeah. Sign us up.
Rashaad Penny (Yahoo ADP 86.3): Rashaad Penny finally put things together in the last 4 weeks of 2021. He was fully healthy and got a complete workload. He torched the NFL to an overall RB1 finish in those 4 weeks. But things are different this year. His team, the Seattle Seahawks, lost their superstar QB Russell Wilson through free agency. Then, because of Penny’s lengthy injury history, the team signed RB Kenneth Walker with a high second round pick. Penny will guarantee great production as long as he has the starting job and stays healthy. But will he be able to sustain that for the whole season? We’re still betting that Penny can give you RB3 production at the very least, with a high end RB2 production well within the range of outcomes.
Kareem Hunt (Yahoo ADP 91.4), Rhamondre Stevenson (Yahoo ADP 96.9), Tony Pollard (Yahoo ADP 94), Adam Thielen (Yahoo ADP 87.8)
Round 9 Pick 108: Trey Lance (Yahoo ADP 106.7): If you get him here and need a QB, draft him. Otherwise if Kenneth Walker (Yahoo ADP 102.6) or Brandon Aiyuk (Yahoo ADP 106.5) are available, prioritise them
DeVonta Smith (Yahoo ADP 108.7): DeVonta Smith‘s rookie season was not as flashy as Ja’Marr Chase or Jaylen Waddle, but he quietly produced. In the last 9 weeks of the season, Smith finished as the WR20 in half PPR. This was aided by little competition in his team, the Philadelphia Eagles, for receiving targets beyond TE Dallas Goedert. That situation has changed this year though, with the addition of star WR AJ Brown to the team. While Smith will now have to share targets, we also expect that this offense will take a step forward due to the addition of Brown and the further development of QB Jalen Hurts. We’re expecting a WR3 season from Smith.
Allen Lazard (Yahoo ADP 109.3): Reigning Most Valuable Player (MVP) QB Aaron Rodgers’ top target in the Green Bay Packers, superstar Davante Adams, has left the team during free agency. The top receiving role now falls to Allen Lazard. Lazard is nowhere near as talented as Adams, so we don’t expect WR1 production. But the role and the quality of the offense should give him a strong opportunity to finish in the WR3 range, with upside.
Round 10 (Pick 109):
Drake London (Yahoo ADP 121.5): Barring major injury, Drake London figures to become one of the top receivers in the NFL over the next few years based on his size, speed, strength and skills. While we have to temper expectations in his rookie season, the opportunity exists for him to contribute right away. His team, the Atlanta Falcons lack major offensive weapons. Also since they are not a great team on either side of the ball, we expect them to play from behind a lot this season. When that happens, teams are generally forced to throw the ball more. All of this should translate into a healthy volume for the rookie and guide him to a WR3 season with high upside.
Other targets:
Christian Kirk (Yahoo ADP 122.3), Robert Woods (Yahoo ADP 124.4), Michael Carter (Yahoo ADP 123.5), Darrell Henderson (Yahoo ADP 124.5), Alexander Mattinson (Yahoo ADP 125), Julio Jones (Yahoo ADP 124.1)
Targets for Round 11 and later:
Chris Olave (Yahoo ADP 126.8), Kadarius Toney (Yahoo ADP 128), Sony Michel (Yahoo ADP 128.6), Garett Wilson (Yahoo ADP 129.1), Isiah Spiller (Yahoo ADP 130.6)
