The 7th spot in the NFL is a prime spot to draft a top running back (RB) in the first round unless a top-tier wide receiver (WR) falls to you. In round 2, you have the option of continuing to load up on RB or pick a top WR to lay the foundation of a strong team in half (0.5) point-per-reception (PPR) leagues.
Round 1 Pick 7: Austin Ekeler (Yahoo ADP 3.8), Cooper Kupp: (Yahoo ADP 3.8), Justin Jefferson (Yahoo ADP 6.4): prioritise them if available
Dalvin Cook: (Yahoo ADP 6.3): Dalvin Cook seems to miss a couple of games every season. He still manages to finish somewhere in the ~RB5 range overall every year regardless. This is because he has an assured role spanning all three downs for the Minnesota Vikings offense, giving him a safe floor. Expect Cook to finish in the same range this year, justifying his selection at this spot.
Derrick Henry (Yahoo ADP 4.9): Derrick Henry had all major NFL RB records in his sight through the season’s halfway mark last year – carries, yards, touchdowns (TDs). Then disaster struck in the form of a broken bone in his foot. Henry seems to be fully recovered now, and should continue his assault on the record books this year. He is 28 though, which is an age RBs start to decline, and did suffer that major injury last year. That risk is why he’s going this low in drafts.
Round 2 Pick 18:
Travis Kelce (Yahoo ADP 16.7): You got Travis Kelce this late? Pick him, count your blessings and run to the fantasy football points bank.
DeAndre Swift (Yahoo ADP: 18.2): DeAndre Swift was the RB7 overall through the first 11 games of last year. Despite missing all but one of the remaining contests due to injury, he still managed to finish as the RB20 overall. We’re expecting him to pick up right where he started last season and finish somewhere in the RB10 overall range, which would be a good outcome midway through round 2.
Cee Dee Lamb (Yahoo ADP: 17.8): Cee Dee Lamb finished as the WR14 overall in the fast paced Dallas Cowboys offense last year. He had to contend with competition from Amari Cooper though, which reduced his share of targets somewhat. That is no longer a problem this year because Cooper is now in Cleveland. Expect Cee Dee to have a top 10 overall finish at WR as a result.
Deebo Samuel (Yahoo ADP: 20.2): Deebo Samuel came of age last year, finishing with almost 1600 yards from scrimmage and 13 TDs. This resulted in a WR3 overall season for him. We expect some regression in TDs and he’s going to be thrown to by rookie QB Trey Lance this year, but Deebo’s role is secure because of which the team just committed a large amount of money to him in the form of an extension. We’re expecting another top 10 finish for him.
Alvin Kamara (Yahoo ADP: 22.2): Alvin Kamara has dropped this far in drafts despite finishing as the overall RB5 and RB1 in the past two years because of a looming suspension resulting from his involvement in a violent altercation over Pro Bowl Weekend. All signs point to the suspension happening in 2023 instead of this year. If so, you’re getting him for a serious discount at this spot.
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Other targets:
Leonard Fournette (Yahoo ADP: 20), Josh Allen (Yahoo ADP: 20.4)
Round 3 Pick 30:
Mark Andrews (Yahoo ADP: 24.5): Get him here to shore up tight end (TE) if still available
AJ Brown (Yahoo ADP 34): AJ Brown has moved to a new team, the Philadelphia Eagles, which should represent increased opportunity for him. His previous team, the Tennessee Titans, had implemented a run first offense that went through Derrick Henry. For the first time in his career, he will now be the focal point of his team’s offense. This should result in a WR1 season for AJ.
Keenan Allen (Yahoo ADP 30.2): Keenan Allen is 30 years old, but you couldn’t tell from the way he performed at the end of last season. He seems to have plenty left in the tank for another dominant WR year, and we’re expecting that he should finish close to the WR1 range for the uptempo Los Angeles Chargers offense.
Ezekiel Elliott (Yahoo ADP 29.9): Ezekiel Elliott had a great start last year, landing at RB5 overall in the first 4 weeks. However, he got injured in week 4 and meandered through the rest of the season, which turned out to be the most inefficient of his career. An offseason of rest seems to have set him right and he seems to be in line for a bounce back year. He could finish in the low end RB1 or high end RB2 range, which would be a great outcome at this spot.
Other targets:
James Conner (Yahoo ADP 31.9), Tee Higgins (Yahoo ADP 30.3)
Round 4 Pick 42:
Kyle Pitts (Yahoo ADP: 39.4): Kyle will be a good pick to secure TE here, if available
Breece Hall (Yahoo ADP: 41.7): Breece Hall was picked at the top of the second round in the NFL draft this year to be the workhorse RB of the future for the New York Jets. He has a skill set that spans all three downs and should ultimately get all the carries he can handle in this offense that is short of offensive weapons. You’ll likely need to show some patience early in the year as Breece fully learns the Jets offense and takes over from incumbent Michael Carter, but we’re expecting him to get into the 15+ carries a game range at some point in the season. This will vault him to the RB2 range.
Jaylen Waddle (Yahoo ADP 43.6): Jaylen Waddle had a strong season last year, finishing as the WR17 overall despite it being his rookie season. He had limited competition which helped him garner a large number of targets, due to a thin Miami Dolphins receiving corps. This year, that has changed with Tyreek Hill, one of the NFL’s best WRs having moved to the Dolphins. Still, we’re expecting that Waddle will benefit from another offseason working with his QB Tua Tagovailoa, and what he will lose in volume of targets, he will somewhat make up for in increased efficiency. We’re predicting another WR2 season for Waddle.
Terry McLaurin (Yahoo ADP: 44.1): “Scary” Terry McLaurin is fast, great at route running and finally has an above average QB in Carston Wentz. He was the WR25 overall last season. With the QB upgrade alone, he should comfortably finish in the WR2 range. If he takes another step forward, there’s additional upside to be had by drafting Terry here.
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Other targets:
Diontae Johnson (Yahoo ADP: 47.2), Travis Etienne (Yahoo ADP 51.4).
Round 5 Pick 54:
Jaylen Waddle (Yahoo ADP 43.6), Mike Williams (Yahoo ADP 49.4), Terry McLaurin (Yahoo ADP: 44.1), Diontae Johnson (Yahoo ADP: 47.2): Get them here if available
Courtland Sutton (Yahoo ADP 53.3): Courtland Sutton had a mediocre 2021 season, as he was recovering from ACL and MCL surgeries the year before and finished at WR42 overall. He should be fully recovered now, and in addition gets a major QB upgrade in the form of Russell Wilson, who joined the Denver Broncos this past offseason. We expect this will revitalise Sutton’s production and get him closer to his 2019 season in which he finished as the WR19 overall. We’re counting on a WR2 season from Sutton this year.
JK Dobbins (Yahoo ADP 56.1): JK Dobbins is the starting RB for one of the league’s premier rushing offenses in the Baltimore Ravens. His QB Lamar Jackson does vulture the occasional TD and Dobbins lacks a significant pass catching role, but all you’re looking for at this spot is RB2 production. This he should easily surpass because of his volume of carries and overall efficiency.
Other targets:
DK Metcalf (Yahoo ADP 55)
Round 6 Pick 66:
Brandin Cooks (Yahoo ADP 74.2): It seems Brandin Cooks and his 1000 yard seasons of WR2 production have been around forever, but he’s still just 28. This means there should be plenty of gas left in the tank for another of those seasons, which is plenty of production from this spot. Sure, he’s being thrown to by unheralded QB Davis Mills, but who cares? He’s largely shown himself to be QB agnostic through his career.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Yahoo ADP 72.7): Clyde Edwards-Helaire only played 10 games last year, and did not set the world on fire in those, landing at an RB39 season when all was said and done. If he’d played all the games, he would’ve ended up in the RB2 range though. He also has plenty of additional upside over and above that as the starting RB in the high octane Kansas City offense. You’re no longer drafting Edwards-Helaire in round 3, and drafting him here represents great value.
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Other targets:
Marquise Brown (Yahoo ADP 74.8), Gabriel Davis (Yahoo ADP 73.7), Damien Harris (Yahoo ADP 66.8)
Round 7 Pick 79:
Brandin Cooks (Yahoo ADP 74.2), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Yahoo ADP 72.7): No brainer picks at this spot if available.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Yahoo ADP 78.1): Amon-Ra St Brown, taking full advantage of spectacular target volume, torched the NFL to an overall WR3 performance the last 6 weeks of 2021. This volume was aided by the absences of TJ Hockenson and Deandre Swift. Not only are the two of them back now, the Detroit Lions have also added Jameson Williams and DJ Chark this year. While there’s now a crowded receiver room, we still expect St. Brown to get pretty decent volume and finish this season as a high end WR3 with additional upside.
Michael Thomas (Yahoo ADP 83.6): Michael Thomas finished as the WR1 overall in 2019. Unfortunately, he’s played very little over the last 2 years due to issues with his ankle and his hamstring. He had surgery on the ankle in the 2021 offseason and missed the whole year. He has seemingly made a full recovery on the ankle but is dealing with a hamstring issue this summer. He’s also 29, an age at which we have to account for some decline in ability. But at this spot in the draft, you’re looking for WR3 performance, which he should easily surpass.
Other targets:
Amari Cooper (Yahoo ADP 76.7), Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9), Russell Wilson (Yahoo ADP 75)
Round 8 Pick 90:
Kareem Hunt (Yahoo ADP 91.4): Kareem Hunt is the 1B running back in the Cleveland Browns run first offense. He played only 8 games last year, but managed more than 12 half ppr fantasy points per game in those games. His full potential is capped because he plays behind Nick Chubb, the 1A RB, who starts above him. We expect Hunt to provide low end RB2 or high end RB3 value anyway due to his role. In addition, if there’s a Nick Chubb injury, he will be an RB1 however long Chubb is out. Draft Hunt here with confidence.
Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9): Darnell Mooney had a strong rookie season to finish as the overall WR26 last year, with almost 1000 yards receiving and 10 fantasy points a game. This year we expect him to do even better as he’s developed another year of chemistry with his QB Justin Fields and no longer has target competition from Allen Robinson, now with the LA Rams. We’re expecting a WR2 season from Mooney this year.
Chris Godwin (Yahoo ADP 91.9): Chris Godwin has been one of the premier receivers in the NFL over the last few years, both because of his ability and the fact that the GOAT Tom Brady is his QB in an accomplished Super Bowl winning Tampa Bay offense. Accordingly he had a WR1 season last year. Unfortunately, last year also ended with Godwin having a gruesome injury in which he tore both his ACL and MCL. This is an injury that whould hamper the first part of Godwin’s season this year as well. But drafting him in this range means that if he ekes out a WR3 season, you’ll be pretty happy. Those expectations he should exceed easily.
Tony Pollard (Yahoo ADP 94): Tony Pollard is one of the most efficient backs in the NFL, playing behind Ezekiel Elliott for the last few years. He finished as RB28 in this role last year. While there have been clamors to have him take over the main RB role in Dallas, team ownership has made it clear that Elliott will remain the feature back. We’re thus expecting him to finish in the RB3 range. If, however, Elliott were to get injured, Pollard would take over the main duties in Dallas and be an RB1 for however long Elliott is sidelined. This makes Pollard one of the most valuable handcuffs in the league. Whether for upside or for depth at RB, Pollard is good to pick here.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Yahoo ADP 96.9): Rhamondre Stevenson performed strongly in his rookie season for the New England Patriots, finishing as RB22 overall despite being in coach Bill Belichick’s doghouse to start the season. While Damien Harris will remain the featured back in New England, Stevenson figures to have plenty of opportunity anyway as he will inherit erstwhile pass catching back James White’s role this year. Of course, were Harris to miss any time this season, Stevenson would be catapulted into RB1 territory.
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Other targets:
Hunter Renfrow (Yahoo ADP 97.2), Elijah Moore (Yahoo ADP 98.6)
Round 9 Pick 103:
Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9), Rhamondre Stevenson (Yahoo ADP 96.9), Tony Pollard (Yahoo ADP 94): If you get any of them here, go for it.
Trey Lance (Yahoo ADP 106.7): Trey Lance’s ADP should drop a little given that the San Francisco 49’ers have re-signed Jimmy Garopollo but we’re not super worried. The team and coaching staff have made it clear that they want to make Lance the starting QB. Barring injury, he should continue to retain that role this year. Last year, in 2 starts Lance averaged 60 rushing yards a game. Given the uptempo nature of the San Francisco offense, we expect Lance to have plenty of QB scoring opportunities throwing to the likes of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. The extra rushing points have the potential of putting him over the top and finishing in the QB3-5 overall range, with additional upside.
Other targets:
Hunter Renfrow (Yahoo ADP 97.2), Kenneth Walker (Yahoo ADP 102.6), Brandon Aiyuk (Yahoo ADP 106.5)
Round 10 (Pick 114):
Drake London (Yahoo ADP 121.5): Drake London is one of the best WRs to come out of the NFL draft this year, combining exceptional size, speed and skill. He has also been drafted by one of the neediest teams at WR, the Atlanta Falcons. With only sophomore TE Kyle Pitts to contend with for targets, we’re expecting a strong year from Drake, enabling him to finish as a high end WR3 with upside.
Christian Kirk (Yahoo ADP 122.3): Christian Kirk takes his show to the Jacksonville Jaguars this year after a strong season with his last team, the Arizona Cardinals, in 2021. He finished as a WR2, with almost a 1000 yards receiving and 5 TDs. While there is a QB downgrade for Kirk this year (sophomore Trevor Lawrence instead of Kyler Murray) as a part of the switch, there should be lesser target competition as well. A high end WR3 finish with WR2 upside is possible in 2022.
Other targets:
Robert Woods (Yahoo ADP 124.4), Michael Carter (Yahoo ADP 123.5), Darrell Henderson (Yahoo ADP 124.5), Alexander Mattinson (Yahoo ADP 125), Julio Jones (Yahoo ADP 124.1)
Targets for Round 11 and later:
Chris Olave (Yahoo ADP 126.8), Kadarius Toney (Yahoo ADP 128), Sony Michel (Yahoo ADP 128.6), Garett Wilson (Yahoo ADP 129.1), Isiah Spiller (Yahoo ADP 130.6).
